Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: MKS Mrągowia Mrągowo zostaje liderem po jesieni w 7 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 36,1 pkt (od 25 do 42 w 95% przebiegów).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MKS Mrągowia Mrągowo | 36,1 ± 4,6 | 25–42 | 72% | 90% | 0% |
| 2 | Stomil II Olsztyn SA | 29,1 ± 5,7 | 17–37 | 9% | 52% | 1% |
| 3 | SKS Gwardia Szczytno | 28,9 ± 5,1 | 18–37 | 6% | 45% | 0% |
| 4 | LKS Orzeł Janowiec Kościelny | 27,2 ± 5,6 | 16–36 | 5% | 38% | 0% |
| 5 | MLKS Czarni Olecko | 25,6 ± 6,0 | 14–36 | 4% | 26% | 1% |
| 6 | CWKS Vęgoria Węgorzewo | 23,6 ± 6,1 | 13–34 | 2% | 17% | 3% |
| 7 | LZS Orzeł Czerwonka | 23,0 ± 6,2 | 11–33 | 1% | 13% | 5% |
| 8 | RKS Orlęta Rema Reszel | 22,4 ± 5,5 | 12–32 | 0% | 7% | 3% |
| 9 | MKS Olimpia Olsztynek | 21,2 ± 6,4 | 10–32 | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| 10 | GKS Stawiguda | 19,6 ± 5,3 | 9–29 | 0% | 2% | 9% |
| 11 | KS Mazur Pisz | 17,9 ± 5,9 | 7–29 | 0% | 1% | 21% |
| 12 | LKS Błękitni Pasym | 16,5 ± 6,0 | 6–27 | 0% | 1% | 27% |
| 13 | MBKS Victoria Bartoszyce | 15,5 ± 5,1 | 6–25 | 0% | 0% | 28% |
| 14 | LKS Mazur Wydminy | 13,4 ± 5,8 | 5–25 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| 15 | KS Śniardwy Orzysz | 10,3 ± 5,6 | 2–22 | 0% | 0% | 69% |
| 16 | GKS Colet Kozłowo | 8,6 ± 5,9 | 1–21 | 0% | 0% | 74% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS Mrągowia Mrągowo | 72% | 12% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stomil II Olsztyn SA | 9% | 27% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SKS Gwardia Szczytno | 6% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Orzeł Janowiec Kościelny | 5% | 14% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS Czarni Olecko | – | 10% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CWKS Vęgoria Węgorzewo | – | 5% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Orzeł Czerwonka | – | – | 8% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – |
| RKS Orlęta Rema Reszel | – | – | 5% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – |
| MKS Olimpia Olsztynek | – | – | 5% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | – | – |
| GKS Stawiguda | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 5% | – | – |
| KS Mazur Pisz | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 6% | – |
| LKS Błękitni Pasym | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 10% | – |
| MBKS Victoria Bartoszyce | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 9% | – |
| LKS Mazur Wydminy | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 13% |
| KS Śniardwy Orzysz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 31% | 25% |
| GKS Colet Kozłowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 49% |