Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Łada 1945 Biłgoraj zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 72,7 pkt (od 60 do 82 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze KS Lublinianka (36%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Orlęta Łuków (97%), Bug Hanna (61%), Górnik Łęczna U21 (58%), Świdniczanka Świdnik (52%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Łada 1945 Biłgoraj | 72,7 ± 5,6 | 60–82 | 54% | 94% | 0% |
| 2 | KS Lublinianka | 70,7 ± 5,8 | 58–81 | 36% | 91% | 0% |
| 3 | Lewart Lubartów | 63,2 ± 6,5 | 49–75 | 6% | 51% | 0% |
| 4 | Avia II Świdnik | 61,0 ± 6,6 | 48–73 | 3% | 38% | 0% |
| 5 | Orlęta-Spomlek Radzyń Podl. | 56,5 ± 6,9 | 43–69 | 1% | 16% | 0% |
| 6 | Powiślak Końskowola | 53,9 ± 7,1 | 39–67 | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 7 | Janowianka Janów Lubelski | 37,7 ± 7,0 | 24–51 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 8 | Victoria Łukowa | 36,6 ± 6,7 | 24–50 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 9 | Granit Bychawa | 34,9 ± 6,8 | 22–49 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| 10 | Tomasovia Tomaszów Lubelski | 31,5 ± 6,7 | 19–45 | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| 11 | Ruch Ryki | 31,1 ± 6,5 | 19–44 | 0% | 0% | 31% |
| 12 | Tur Milejów | 30,4 ± 7,2 | 17–44 | 0% | 0% | 36% |
| 13 | Świdniczanka Świdnik | 27,9 ± 6,7 | 16–42 | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| 14 | Górnik Łęczna U21 | 27,0 ± 6,2 | 16–41 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| 15 | Bug Hanna | 26,3 ± 6,5 | 15–40 | 0% | 0% | 61% |
| 16 | Orlęta Łuków | 16,3 ± 5,2 | 7–27 | 0% | 0% | 97% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łada 1945 Biłgoraj | 54% | 29% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Lublinianka | 36% | 39% | 16% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Lewart Lubartów | 6% | 15% | 31% | 25% | 15% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Avia II Świdnik | – | 12% | 23% | 29% | 20% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Orlęta-Spomlek Radzyń Podl. | – | – | 12% | 21% | 33% | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Powiślak Końskowola | – | – | 7% | 14% | 25% | 40% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Janowianka Janów Lubelski | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 25% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| Victoria Łukowa | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20% | 21% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| Granit Bychawa | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 5% | – | – |
| Tomasovia Tomaszów Lubelski | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 7% | – |
| Ruch Ryki | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 7% | – |
| Tur Milejów | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | – |
| Świdniczanka Świdnik | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 7% |
| Górnik Łęczna U21 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 16% | 19% | 19% | – |
| Bug Hanna | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 9% |
| Orlęta Łuków | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 16% | 72% |