Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: LKS Agrotex Milanów zostaje mistrzem w 4 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 67,3 pkt (od 55 do 78 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Podlasie II Biała Podlaska (29%), Huragan Międzyrzec Podlaski (19%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Sokół Adamów (83%), Unia Krzywda (58%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LKS Agrotex Milanów | 67,3 ± 6,0 | 55–78 | 40% | 84% | 0% |
| 2 | Podlasie II Biała Podlaska | 65,7 ± 6,4 | 52–78 | 29% | 77% | 0% |
| 3 | Huragan Międzyrzec Podlaski | 63,2 ± 6,8 | 49–76 | 19% | 63% | 0% |
| 4 | Victoria Parczew | 60,3 ± 6,8 | 46–73 | 8% | 44% | 0% |
| 5 | Grom Kąkolewnica | 53,6 ± 7,4 | 39–68 | 2% | 14% | 0% |
| 6 | Granica Terespol | 51,7 ± 7,2 | 37–65 | 1% | 9% | 0% |
| 7 | AZ-BUD KOMARÓWKA | 48,7 ± 7,6 | 34–64 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 8 | Orzeł Czemierniki | 46,1 ± 7,5 | 32–61 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 9 | Lutnia Piszczac | 42,4 ± 7,0 | 29–56 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | Łazowski KS Łazy | 42,4 ± 7,7 | 28–58 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 11 | Red Sielczyk | 34,7 ± 6,4 | 23–48 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | KS DRELÓW | 31,9 ± 7,2 | 18–47 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 13 | Orlęta II Łuków | 27,8 ± 6,2 | 17–41 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 14 | Absolwent Domaszewnica | 19,4 ± 5,8 | 9–32 | 0% | 0% | 48% |
| 15 | Unia Krzywda | 18,4 ± 5,6 | 9–31 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| 16 | Sokół Adamów | 14,0 ± 5,5 | 4–26 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKS Agrotex Milanów | 40% | 27% | 16% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Podlasie II Biała Podlaska | 29% | 27% | 21% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Huragan Międzyrzec Podlaski | 19% | 21% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Victoria Parczew | 8% | 15% | 21% | 23% | 15% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Grom Kąkolewnica | – | – | 8% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Granica Terespol | – | – | 5% | 11% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| AZ-BUD KOMARÓWKA | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Orzeł Czemierniki | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 19% | 17% | 18% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Lutnia Piszczac | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 13% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| Łazowski KS Łazy | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| Red Sielczyk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 16% | 27% | 26% | 12% | – | – | – |
| KS DRELÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 20% | 25% | 18% | 9% | – | – |
| Orlęta II Łuków | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 11% | 21% | 36% | 17% | 5% | – |
| Absolwent Domaszewnica | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 14% | 30% | 29% | 19% |
| Unia Krzywda | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 27% | 34% | 24% |
| Sokół Adamów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13% | 28% | 55% |