Uwaga. W teście na sezonie 2025/26 model w tej lidze nie był lepszy od prostego punktu odniesienia — traktuj prognozy ostrożnie.
Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: MKS PIASECZNO zostaje mistrzem w 3 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 67,5 pkt (od 52 do 82 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze RKS Ursus W-wa (26%), MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. (22%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: MKS Przasnysz (98%), KS Łomianki (90%), MLKS Victoria Sulejówek (70%), MLKS Nadnarwianka (53%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MKS PIASECZNO | 67,5 ± 7,9 | 52–82 | 31% | 67% | 0% |
| 2 | RKS Ursus W-wa | 66,7 ± 7,6 | 51–81 | 26% | 64% | 0% |
| 3 | MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. | 66,0 ± 7,4 | 51–80 | 22% | 62% | 0% |
| 4 | SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. | 61,4 ± 7,7 | 47–76 | 8% | 35% | 0% |
| 5 | POLONIA II WARSZAWA S.A. | 60,2 ± 7,5 | 45–74 | 7% | 31% | 0% |
| 6 | MKS Makowianka Maków Maz. | 57,4 ± 8,0 | 41–73 | 4% | 21% | 0% |
| 7 | RKP 1926 Broń Radom | 53,0 ± 7,9 | 37–68 | 1% | 8% | 1% |
| 8 | KS Legionovia | 52,2 ± 8,2 | 36–68 | 1% | 7% | 2% |
| 9 | SKS Oskar Przysucha | 49,0 ± 7,5 | 35–64 | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 | KS Mszczonowianka | 46,2 ± 7,7 | 31–61 | 0% | 2% | 5% |
| 11 | KS Błonianka | 46,2 ± 8,1 | 31–62 | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| 12 | LKS Mazur Karczew | 41,1 ± 7,7 | 27–57 | 0% | 0% | 18% |
| 13 | UKS Talent Warszawa | 39,8 ± 7,6 | 26–55 | 0% | 0% | 22% |
| 14 | Enea Energia Kozienice | 37,6 ± 7,8 | 24–54 | 0% | 0% | 32% |
| 15 | MLKS Nadnarwianka | 33,6 ± 7,6 | 19–49 | 0% | 0% | 53% |
| 16 | MLKS Victoria Sulejówek | 30,3 ± 7,5 | 17–46 | 0% | 0% | 70% |
| 17 | KS Łomianki | 24,8 ± 6,8 | 14–39 | 0% | 0% | 90% |
| 18 | MKS Przasnysz | 18,2 ± 6,3 | 7–32 | 0% | 0% | 98% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS PIASECZNO | 31% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKS Ursus W-wa | 26% | 21% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. | 22% | 21% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. | 8% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POLONIA II WARSZAWA S.A. | 7% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Makowianka Maków Maz. | – | 6% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKP 1926 Broń Radom | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Legionovia | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SKS Oskar Przysucha | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Mszczonowianka | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| KS Błonianka | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Mazur Karczew | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 6% | – | – |
| UKS Talent Warszawa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 7% | – | – |
| Enea Energia Kozienice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 15% | 11% | – | – |
| MLKS Nadnarwianka | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 13% | 14% | 22% | 18% | 10% | – |
| MLKS Victoria Sulejówek | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 18% | 25% | 19% | 8% |
| KS Łomianki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 21% | 39% | 20% |
| MKS Przasnysz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 21% | 68% |