Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: Igloopol Dębica zostaje liderem po jesieni w 8 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 38,8 pkt (od 32 do 43 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze Błękitni Ropczyce (21%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Igloopol Dębica | 38,8 ± 2,9 | 32–43 | 76% | 99% | 0% |
| 2 | Błękitni Ropczyce | 35,1 ± 2,9 | 29–40 | 21% | 91% | 0% |
| 3 | KS Wiązownica | 30,5 ± 3,2 | 24–36 | 2% | 37% | 0% |
| 4 | Górnik Strachocina | 30,3 ± 3,1 | 25–36 | 1% | 34% | 0% |
| 5 | Ekoball Stal Sanok | 28,8 ± 3,0 | 23–34 | 0% | 21% | 0% |
| 6 | ZKS Izolator Boguchwała | 28,8 ± 3,1 | 23–35 | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 7 | Stal II Rzeszów S.A. | 26,7 ± 3,1 | 20–32 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 8 | SP Sokół Nisko | 23,0 ± 3,5 | 17–30 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 | Pogoń - Sokół II Lubaczów Sp. z o.o. | 21,8 ± 3,0 | 16–28 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | MKS Sokół Sieniawa | 21,1 ± 3,1 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 11 | Polonia Przemyśl | 20,8 ± 3,0 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 12 | SPEC Stal Łańcut | 19,2 ± 2,8 | 15–25 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 13 | KS Legion Pilzno | 18,8 ± 3,0 | 14–25 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 14 | Czarni 1910 Jasło | 18,1 ± 3,1 | 12–24 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 15 | KS Radomyślanka Geyer&Hosaja Radomyśl Wielki | 15,6 ± 3,5 | 9–23 | 0% | 0% | 46% |
| 16 | Wisłok Wiśniowa | 14,9 ± 3,0 | 10–21 | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| 17 | Strug Tyczyn | 14,2 ± 2,9 | 10–20 | 0% | 0% | 70% |
| 18 | Pogoń Leżajsk | 10,7 ± 2,8 | 6–17 | 0% | 0% | 93% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igloopol Dębica | 76% | 20% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Błękitni Ropczyce | 21% | 53% | 17% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Wiązownica | – | 11% | 23% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Górnik Strachocina | – | 8% | 25% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ekoball Stal Sanok | – | – | 16% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ZKS Izolator Boguchwała | – | – | 11% | 21% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stal II Rzeszów S.A. | – | – | – | 11% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SP Sokół Nisko | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pogoń - Sokół II Lubaczów Sp. z o.o. | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 11% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Sokół Sieniawa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 9% | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia Przemyśl | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 9% | – | – | – | – |
| SPEC Stal Łańcut | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 10% | – | – | – |
| KS Legion Pilzno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 6% | – | – |
| Czarni 1910 Jasło | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 6% | – |
| KS Radomyślanka Geyer&Hosaja Radomyśl Wielki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 12% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 10% |
| Wisłok Wiśniowa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 18% | 27% | 22% | 8% |
| Strug Tyczyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 13% | 21% | 32% | 17% |
| Pogoń Leżajsk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 21% | 63% |