Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Stal Stalowa Wola P.S.A. II zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 68,2 pkt (od 56 do 78 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Sokół Kamień (24%), ŁKS Łowisko (15%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: TRUCK Kotowa Wola (79%), GAS Łęg Stany (71%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stal Stalowa Wola P.S.A. II | 68,2 ± 5,8 | 56–78 | 55% | 94% | 0% |
| 2 | Sokół Kamień | 63,7 ± 7,0 | 49–76 | 24% | 78% | 0% |
| 3 | ŁKS Łowisko | 61,4 ± 7,0 | 47–74 | 15% | 66% | 0% |
| 4 | Stal Nowa Dęba | 56,4 ± 7,1 | 42–69 | 5% | 35% | 0% |
| 5 | Unia Nowa Sarzyna | 52,9 ± 6,8 | 39–66 | 1% | 18% | 0% |
| 6 | Olimpia Pysznica | 46,2 ± 7,0 | 33–60 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 7 | Podlesianka Kamień | 45,1 ± 7,2 | 31–59 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | LZS Zdziary | 40,9 ± 7,2 | 27–55 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 | LZS Słowianin Grębów | 40,1 ± 7,1 | 27–54 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 10 | Sparta Jeżowe | 39,7 ± 6,9 | 27–54 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 11 | KP Tanew Wólka Tanewska | 31,4 ± 6,5 | 20–44 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| 12 | SMS.SIARKA TARNOBRZEG. II | 30,9 ± 7,0 | 18–46 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 13 | Stal Gorzyce | 29,9 ± 6,5 | 18–43 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 14 | Czarni Lipa | 28,8 ± 6,9 | 16–43 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 15 | GAS Łęg Stany | 19,7 ± 5,9 | 10–33 | 0% | 0% | 71% |
| 16 | TRUCK Kotowa Wola | 18,6 ± 6,0 | 8–31 | 0% | 0% | 79% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Stalowa Wola P.S.A. II | 55% | 27% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sokół Kamień | 24% | 31% | 23% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ŁKS Łowisko | 15% | 25% | 26% | 18% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stal Nowa Dęba | – | 11% | 20% | 26% | 18% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Unia Nowa Sarzyna | – | – | 12% | 21% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Olimpia Pysznica | – | – | – | 8% | 14% | 18% | 19% | 15% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Podlesianka Kamień | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Zdziary | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Słowianin Grębów | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| Sparta Jeżowe | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | – | – | – | – |
| KP Tanew Wólka Tanewska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 7% | – |
| SMS.SIARKA TARNOBRZEG. II | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 15% | 9% | – |
| Stal Gorzyce | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 9% | – |
| Czarni Lipa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 12% | 16% | 19% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| GAS Łęg Stany | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 15% | 31% | 40% |
| TRUCK Kotowa Wola | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 31% | 48% |