Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Pomezania Malbork zostaje mistrzem w 7 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 71,7 pkt (od 55 do 85 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Kaszubia Kościerzyna (15%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Victoria Kaliska (92%), Kolejarz Chojnice (27%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pomezania Malbork | 71,7 ± 7,5 | 55–85 | 72% | 95% | 0% |
| 2 | Kaszubia Kościerzyna | 61,9 ± 7,7 | 46–76 | 15% | 72% | 0% |
| 3 | KP Gryf Tczew | 58,9 ± 7,6 | 44–73 | 8% | 54% | 0% |
| 4 | Żuławy Nowy Dwór Gdański | 53,6 ± 7,6 | 38–67 | 1% | 27% | 0% |
| 5 | Wietcisa Skarszewy | 52,0 ± 8,7 | 35–68 | 2% | 23% | 0% |
| 6 | Pogoń Prabuty | 48,7 ± 8,1 | 33–65 | 1% | 12% | 0% |
| 7 | Styna Godziszewo | 48,3 ± 8,1 | 33–65 | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| 8 | Mady Ostaszewo | 41,4 ± 7,9 | 27–58 | 0% | 3% | 1% |
| 9 | DSPN Supra Kwidzyn | 41,1 ± 8,5 | 26–58 | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| 10 | KS Skorzewo | 35,6 ± 8,5 | 20–52 | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| 11 | Błękitni Stare Pole | 33,7 ± 8,1 | 19–51 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 12 | Centrum Pelplin | 32,7 ± 7,6 | 18–49 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 13 | Rodło Kwidzyn | 30,2 ± 7,9 | 16–46 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 14 | Kolejarz Chojnice | 28,4 ± 7,8 | 14–44 | 0% | 0% | 27% |
| 15 | Relax Ryjewo | 28,7 ± 7,6 | 15–45 | 0% | 0% | 27% |
| 16 | Victoria Kaliska | 14,4 ± 6,4 | 4–28 | 0% | 0% | 92% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pomezania Malbork | 72% | 16% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kaszubia Kościerzyna | 15% | 36% | 20% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KP Gryf Tczew | 8% | 21% | 24% | 18% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Żuławy Nowy Dwór Gdański | – | 9% | 16% | 20% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Wietcisa Skarszewy | – | 9% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pogoń Prabuty | – | – | 7% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Styna Godziszewo | – | – | 7% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mady Ostaszewo | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – |
| DSPN Supra Kwidzyn | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – |
| KS Skorzewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | – |
| Błękitni Stare Pole | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 9% | – |
| Centrum Pelplin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 9% | – |
| Rodło Kwidzyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 19% | 17% | – |
| Kolejarz Chojnice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 7% |
| Relax Ryjewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 23% | – |
| Victoria Kaliska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 80% |