Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: Stomil Olsztyn SA zostaje liderem po jesieni w 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 40,6 pkt (od 37 do 43 w 95% przebiegów).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stomil Olsztyn SA | 40,6 ± 2,0 | 37–43 | 95% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | MMKS Concordia Elbląg | 37,0 ± 1,4 | 33–38 | 5% | 100% | 0% |
| 3 | KKS Granica Kętrzyn | 31,1 ± 2,2 | 27–35 | 0% | 45% | 0% |
| 4 | BKS Tęcza Biskupiec | 30,1 ± 2,1 | 26–33 | 0% | 31% | 0% |
| 5 | GKS LZS Wikielec | 28,3 ± 2,3 | 24–33 | 0% | 15% | 0% |
| 6 | OKS Sokół Ostróda | 27,6 ± 2,3 | 24–33 | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 7 | GKS Pisa Eco-Ter Barczewo | 23,8 ± 2,2 | 19–27 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | DKS Dobre Miasto | 21,1 ± 2,4 | 16–25 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | MKS Rominta Gołdap | 19,9 ± 2,2 | 17–24 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | MLKS Znicz Biała Piska | 16,9 ± 1,9 | 14–21 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | MKS Mazur Ełk | 16,6 ± 2,0 | 14–20 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | MKS Start Nidzica | 14,3 ± 2,3 | 10–18 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 13 | UKS Naki Olsztyn | 12,5 ± 2,0 | 10–16 | 0% | 0% | 16% |
| 14 | GKS Mamry Giżycko | 8,6 ± 2,2 | 5–12 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
| 15 | MKS Zatoka Braniewo | 6,5 ± 1,7 | 5–11 | 0% | 0% | 98% |
| 16 | KS Polonia Pasłęk | 3,0 ± 1,9 | 1–7 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stomil Olsztyn SA | 95% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MMKS Concordia Elbląg | 5% | 93% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KKS Granica Kętrzyn | – | – | 44% | 31% | 19% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BKS Tęcza Biskupiec | – | – | 30% | 32% | 24% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS LZS Wikielec | – | – | 14% | 21% | 34% | 25% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKS Sokół Ostróda | – | – | 10% | 16% | 22% | 43% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Pisa Eco-Ter Barczewo | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 57% | 24% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DKS Dobre Miasto | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | 41% | 27% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Rominta Gołdap | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 31% | 38% | 19% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS Znicz Biała Piska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14% | 30% | 33% | 18% | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Mazur Ełk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 28% | 33% | 22% | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Start Nidzica | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 25% | 36% | 21% | – | – | – |
| UKS Naki Olsztyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | 57% | 15% | – | – |
| GKS Mamry Giżycko | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15% | 58% | 22% | – |
| MKS Zatoka Braniewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | 69% | 8% |
| KS Polonia Pasłęk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 87% |