Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: PATRIA Buk zostaje mistrzem w 4 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 68,4 pkt (od 56 do 79 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze ORKAN Chorzemin (28%), Luboński KS Luboń (24%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: SOKÓŁ Rakoniewice (100%), NKS Niepruszewo (88%), SPÓJNIA Strykowo (68%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PATRIA Buk | 68,4 ± 6,0 | 56–79 | 41% | 87% | 0% |
| 2 | ORKAN Chorzemin | 66,4 ± 5,9 | 55–77 | 28% | 83% | 0% |
| 3 | Luboński KS Luboń | 65,1 ± 6,0 | 53–75 | 24% | 76% | 0% |
| 4 | WIELKOPOLSKA Komorniki | 59,3 ± 7,0 | 45–72 | 6% | 39% | 0% |
| 5 | KS Canarinhos Skórzewo | 51,7 ± 6,9 | 38–65 | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| 6 | KS Gminy Brodnica Manieczki | 50,2 ± 6,7 | 38–63 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 7 | HELIOS Czempiń | 47,8 ± 7,1 | 34–61 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | DĄB Kębłowo | 41,8 ± 6,5 | 29–54 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 9 | APR Lampart Poznań | 40,7 ± 7,1 | 27–55 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | KS 1920 Mosina | 38,2 ± 6,8 | 25–51 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 11 | ORKAN Konarzewo | 35,5 ± 7,1 | 22–49 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 12 | PROMIEŃ Opalenica | 31,8 ± 6,5 | 20–45 | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 13 | ORZEŁ Granowo | 30,4 ± 6,2 | 19–43 | 0% | 0% | 18% |
| 14 | SPÓJNIA Strykowo | 23,1 ± 6,3 | 11–36 | 0% | 0% | 68% |
| 15 | NKS Niepruszewo | 19,2 ± 5,5 | 9–31 | 0% | 0% | 88% |
| 16 | SOKÓŁ Rakoniewice | 10,3 ± 4,5 | 3–20 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIA Buk | 41% | 28% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORKAN Chorzemin | 28% | 31% | 24% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Luboński KS Luboń | 24% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| WIELKOPOLSKA Komorniki | 6% | 13% | 19% | 28% | 17% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Canarinhos Skórzewo | – | – | – | 15% | 24% | 22% | 14% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Gminy Brodnica Manieczki | – | – | – | 12% | 19% | 21% | 17% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HELIOS Czempiń | – | – | – | 6% | 16% | 20% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DĄB Kębłowo | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 14% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 10% | 5% | – | – | – | – |
| APR Lampart Poznań | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – | – |
| KS 1920 Mosina | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – |
| ORKAN Konarzewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 20% | 15% | 11% | 5% | – | – |
| PROMIEŃ Opalenica | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 17% | 22% | 22% | 11% | – | – |
| ORZEŁ Granowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 15% | 23% | 28% | 14% | – | – |
| SPÓJNIA Strykowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 16% | 38% | 26% | – |
| NKS Niepruszewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 25% | 52% | 11% |
| SOKÓŁ Rakoniewice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 84% |