Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: STAL Pleszew zostaje mistrzem w 3 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 62,5 pkt (od 50 do 73 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze VICTORIA Ostrzeszów (36%), OGNIWO Łąkociny (13%), PŁOMIEŃ Opatów (10%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: HURAGAN Szczury (100%), OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. II (82%), PELIKAN Grabów (46%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STAL Pleszew | 62,5 ± 6,2 | 50–73 | 32% | 78% | 0% |
| 2 | VICTORIA Ostrzeszów | 63,0 ± 6,9 | 49–75 | 36% | 77% | 0% |
| 3 | OGNIWO Łąkociny | 57,5 ± 7,2 | 43–71 | 13% | 49% | 0% |
| 4 | PŁOMIEŃ Opatów | 56,8 ± 7,1 | 43–71 | 10% | 42% | 0% |
| 5 | ODOLANOVIA Odolanów | 56,0 ± 6,9 | 42–69 | 8% | 38% | 0% |
| 6 | LAS KUCZKÓW | 46,7 ± 7,2 | 33–61 | 1% | 7% | 0% |
| 7 | KP SŁUPIA | 45,4 ± 7,1 | 31–60 | 0% | 5% | 1% |
| 8 | CZARNI Dobrzyca | 42,6 ± 7,3 | 29–57 | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 9 | KS Rogaszyce | 38,7 ± 7,2 | 25–53 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 10 | LZS Doruchów | 38,4 ± 7,0 | 25–52 | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| 11 | OKS 1926 Ostrów Wlkp. | 37,4 ± 7,2 | 24–52 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 12 | MASOVIA Kraszewice | 36,4 ± 7,1 | 23–51 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 13 | PIAST Czekanów | 29,1 ± 6,9 | 16–43 | 0% | 0% | 42% |
| 14 | PELIKAN Grabów | 28,3 ± 7,1 | 15–42 | 0% | 0% | 46% |
| 15 | OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. II | 21,9 ± 6,0 | 11–34 | 0% | 0% | 82% |
| 16 | HURAGAN Szczury | 10,5 ± 4,9 | 2–21 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAL Pleszew | 32% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| VICTORIA Ostrzeszów | 36% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OGNIWO Łąkociny | 13% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PŁOMIEŃ Opatów | 10% | 14% | 18% | 20% | 17% | 10% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ODOLANOVIA Odolanów | 8% | 14% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LAS KUCZKÓW | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KP SŁUPIA | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI Dobrzyca | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| KS Rogaszyce | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – |
| LZS Doruchów | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | – | – | – |
| OKS 1926 Ostrów Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 5% | – | – |
| MASOVIA Kraszewice | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 8% | – | – |
| PIAST Czekanów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 14% | 21% | 25% | 16% | – |
| PELIKAN Grabów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 14% | 20% | 26% | 17% | – |
| OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. II | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 23% | 51% | 8% |
| HURAGAN Szczury | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 88% |