Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: POGOŃ OLEŚNICA zostaje mistrzem w 7 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 77,9 pkt (od 67 do 86 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze CZARNI JELCZ LASKOWICE (23%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: POLONIA MIŁOSZYCE (78%), WKS WILCZYCE (78%), LZS Solniki Małe (73%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | POGOŃ OLEŚNICA | 77,9 ± 5,0 | 67–86 | 74% | 99% | 0% |
| 2 | CZARNI JELCZ LASKOWICE | 72,1 ± 5,8 | 59–82 | 23% | 94% | 0% |
| 3 | PERŁA WĘGRÓW | 61,9 ± 6,6 | 48–74 | 1% | 48% | 0% |
| 4 | CZARNI CHRZĄSTAWA | 60,7 ± 6,8 | 47–73 | 1% | 40% | 0% |
| 5 | SOKÓŁ MARCINKOWICE | 54,6 ± 7,1 | 40–68 | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 6 | DĄB DOBROSZYCE | 48,8 ± 7,0 | 36–63 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 7 | KS BOGUSZYCE OSIEDLE | 44,7 ± 7,1 | 31–58 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 8 | KS GRĘBOSZYCE | 40,2 ± 7,6 | 26–55 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 9 | ZBYTOWA | 36,8 ± 7,3 | 22–51 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 10 | AP OLEŚNICA | 36,8 ± 7,2 | 23–51 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 11 | DŁUGOŁĘKA 2000 | 32,0 ± 7,0 | 19–46 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 12 | WIDAWA KIEŁCZÓW | 29,8 ± 7,1 | 17–45 | 0% | 0% | 18% |
| 13 | Akademia Skra Wojnowice | 26,4 ± 6,6 | 15–40 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| 14 | LZS Solniki Małe | 19,8 ± 6,4 | 8–33 | 0% | 0% | 73% |
| 15 | WKS WILCZYCE | 18,9 ± 6,2 | 8–33 | 0% | 0% | 78% |
| 16 | POLONIA MIŁOSZYCE | 19,1 ± 6,0 | 9–32 | 0% | 0% | 78% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POGOŃ OLEŚNICA | 74% | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI JELCZ LASKOWICE | 23% | 56% | 15% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PERŁA WĘGRÓW | – | 11% | 36% | 29% | 15% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI CHRZĄSTAWA | – | 8% | 31% | 31% | 18% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SOKÓŁ MARCINKOWICE | – | – | 11% | 22% | 32% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DĄB DOBROSZYCE | – | – | – | 8% | 17% | 27% | 20% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS BOGUSZYCE OSIEDLE | – | – | – | – | 9% | 20% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS GRĘBOSZYCE | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – |
| ZBYTOWA | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 5% | – | – | – |
| AP OLEŚNICA | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 9% | – | – | – | – |
| DŁUGOŁĘKA 2000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 16% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 7% | – | – |
| WIDAWA KIEŁCZÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 17% | 21% | 16% | 10% | – | – |
| Akademia Skra Wojnowice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 11% | 19% | 21% | 17% | 11% | 5% |
| LZS Solniki Małe | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 14% | 19% | 27% | 27% |
| WKS WILCZYCE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 19% | 27% | 32% |
| POLONIA MIŁOSZYCE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 21% | 25% | 32% |