Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: Unia Solec Kujawski zostaje liderem po jesieni w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 40,5 pkt (od 34 do 45 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze Tłuchowia Tłuchowo (29%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unia Solec Kujawski | 40,5 ± 2,9 | 34–45 | 61% | 97% | 0% |
| 2 | Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | 38,7 ± 3,3 | 32–45 | 29% | 89% | 0% |
| 3 | Pogoń Mogilno | 36,5 ± 2,9 | 30–41 | 7% | 74% | 0% |
| 4 | Unia Wąbrzeźno | 33,2 ± 3,2 | 27–40 | 3% | 26% | 0% |
| 5 | Wisła Dobrzyń n/Wisłą | 31,3 ± 3,1 | 26–37 | 0% | 12% | 0% |
| 6 | Mustang Ostaszewo | 27,5 ± 2,9 | 22–33 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 7 | Sparta Brodnica | 26,2 ± 2,9 | 21–31 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | Pomorzanin Toruń | 26,5 ± 3,1 | 20–33 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | Start ECO-POL Pruszcz | 24,2 ± 3,0 | 18–29 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | Kujawiak Kowal | 24,0 ± 3,0 | 19–30 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | Rawys CEO Raciąż | 19,0 ± 3,1 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 12 | Skrwa Skrwilno | 18,2 ± 3,1 | 12–24 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 13 | Lech Rypin | 16,7 ± 3,1 | 11–23 | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 14 | Victoria Czernikowo | 16,6 ± 3,1 | 11–23 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 15 | Cuiavia Inowrocław | 14,4 ± 2,9 | 9–21 | 0% | 0% | 36% |
| 16 | Łokietek Brześć Kujawski | 13,2 ± 2,8 | 8–19 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| 17 | Noteć Gębice | 11,3 ± 2,8 | 7–17 | 0% | 0% | 81% |
| 18 | Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski | 10,5 ± 2,9 | 6–16 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unia Solec Kujawski | 61% | 27% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | 29% | 37% | 23% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pogoń Mogilno | 7% | 26% | 42% | 18% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Unia Wąbrzeźno | – | 8% | 15% | 38% | 23% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Wisła Dobrzyń n/Wisłą | – | – | 9% | 24% | 32% | 17% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mustang Ostaszewo | – | – | – | 7% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 18% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sparta Brodnica | – | – | – | – | 9% | 20% | 21% | 20% | 14% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pomorzanin Toruń | – | – | – | – | 8% | 17% | 21% | 20% | 16% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Start ECO-POL Pruszcz | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 22% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kujawiak Kowal | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 15% | 23% | 25% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Rawys CEO Raciąż | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 13% | 26% | 20% | 14% | 10% | – | – | – | – |
| Skrwa Skrwilno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – |
| Lech Rypin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 8% | – | – |
| Victoria Czernikowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 13% | 6% | – |
| Cuiavia Inowrocław | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 17% | 24% | 18% | 13% | – |
| Łokietek Brześć Kujawski | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 15% | 19% | 23% | 20% | 13% |
| Noteć Gębice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 17% | 30% | 34% |
| Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 14% | 23% | 46% |