Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Unia Solec Kujawski zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 77,7 pkt (od 63 do 91 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Tłuchowia Tłuchowo (24%), Pogoń Mogilno (21%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski (84%), Noteć Gębice (77%), Łokietek Brześć Kujawski (65%), Cuiavia Inowrocław (58%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unia Solec Kujawski | 77,7 ± 7,0 | 63–91 | 48% | 90% | 0% |
| 2 | Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | 74,0 ± 7,6 | 58–88 | 24% | 79% | 0% |
| 3 | Pogoń Mogilno | 72,9 ± 7,0 | 58–86 | 21% | 76% | 0% |
| 4 | Unia Wąbrzeźno | 64,9 ± 7,9 | 49–80 | 5% | 31% | 0% |
| 5 | Wisła Dobrzyń n/Wisłą | 60,6 ± 7,7 | 45–75 | 1% | 14% | 0% |
| 6 | Sparta Brodnica | 55,1 ± 7,6 | 40–69 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 7 | Mustang Ostaszewo | 53,9 ± 8,0 | 39–69 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 8 | Pomorzanin Toruń | 50,8 ± 8,0 | 35–66 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 | Start ECO-POL Pruszcz | 47,1 ± 7,9 | 32–62 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 10 | Kujawiak Kowal | 47,1 ± 7,8 | 33–63 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 11 | Rawys CEO Raciąż | 41,6 ± 7,6 | 27–56 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 12 | Skrwa Skrwilno | 36,7 ± 7,6 | 22–52 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 13 | Lech Rypin | 36,1 ± 7,5 | 22–51 | 0% | 0% | 28% |
| 14 | Victoria Czernikowo | 32,3 ± 7,1 | 19–47 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| 15 | Cuiavia Inowrocław | 30,1 ± 7,0 | 18–44 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| 16 | Łokietek Brześć Kujawski | 28,9 ± 7,2 | 16–44 | 0% | 0% | 65% |
| 17 | Noteć Gębice | 26,5 ± 7,1 | 14–42 | 0% | 0% | 77% |
| 18 | Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski | 24,3 ± 6,9 | 12–39 | 0% | 0% | 84% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unia Solec Kujawski | 48% | 27% | 15% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | 24% | 29% | 25% | 11% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pogoń Mogilno | 21% | 27% | 27% | 14% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Unia Wąbrzeźno | 5% | 10% | 17% | 26% | 18% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Wisła Dobrzyń n/Wisłą | – | – | 9% | 20% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sparta Brodnica | – | – | – | 8% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mustang Ostaszewo | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pomorzanin Toruń | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Start ECO-POL Pruszcz | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kujawiak Kowal | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Rawys CEO Raciąż | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| Skrwa Skrwilno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 7% | – | – |
| Lech Rypin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 15% | 17% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 6% | – |
| Victoria Czernikowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 6% |
| Cuiavia Inowrocław | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 11% |
| Łokietek Brześć Kujawski | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 16% |
| Noteć Gębice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 23% | 25% |
| Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 17% | 20% | 37% |