Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: GRUPA CHMIEL POLONIA SŁUBICE zostaje mistrzem w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 86,2 pkt (od 74 do 95 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze VICTORIA SZCZANIEC (36%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: ŁUCZNIK POLNED STRZELCE KRAJ. (83%), STAL SULĘCIN (76%), SPROTAVIA SZPROTAWA (54%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GRUPA CHMIEL POLONIA SŁUBICE | 86,2 ± 5,5 | 74–95 | 63% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | VICTORIA SZCZANIEC | 82,8 ± 6,7 | 69–95 | 36% | 99% | 0% |
| 3 | KORONA KOŻUCHÓW | 67,2 ± 7,3 | 52–81 | 1% | 64% | 0% |
| 4 | CZARNI ŻAGAŃ 1957 | 55,9 ± 7,7 | 40–71 | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 5 | TS CELULOZA KOSTRZYN NAD ODRĄ | 54,8 ± 7,9 | 40–70 | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| 6 | LECHIA II ZIELONA GÓRA | 54,1 ± 7,6 | 39–69 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 7 | ODRA NIETKÓW | 53,2 ± 7,8 | 38–69 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 8 | PIAST KARNIN | 52,4 ± 7,7 | 38–67 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 9 | POGOŃ ŚWIEBODZIN | 52,2 ± 7,8 | 37–68 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 10 | ILANKA RZEPIN | 50,6 ± 7,7 | 35–65 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 11 | PIAST IŁOWA | 43,5 ± 7,6 | 29–59 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 12 | RÓŻA RÓŻANKI | 39,5 ± 7,6 | 26–55 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 13 | PROMIEŃ ŻARY | 38,1 ± 7,6 | 24–53 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| 14 | POGOŃ SKWIERZYNA | 30,8 ± 7,0 | 18–44 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 15 | DOZAMET NOWA SÓL | 29,9 ± 7,2 | 17–45 | 0% | 0% | 39% |
| 16 | SPROTAVIA SZPROTAWA | 26,9 ± 7,0 | 15–42 | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| 17 | STAL SULĘCIN | 23,2 ± 7,0 | 12–38 | 0% | 0% | 76% |
| 18 | ŁUCZNIK POLNED STRZELCE KRAJ. | 20,9 ± 6,5 | 10–34 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRUPA CHMIEL POLONIA SŁUBICE | 63% | 35% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| VICTORIA SZCZANIEC | 36% | 56% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KORONA KOŻUCHÓW | – | 7% | 57% | 16% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI ŻAGAŃ 1957 | – | – | 8% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| TS CELULOZA KOSTRZYN NAD ODRĄ | – | – | 7% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LECHIA II ZIELONA GÓRA | – | – | 5% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ODRA NIETKÓW | – | – | – | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST KARNIN | – | – | – | 9% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ ŚWIEBODZIN | – | – | – | 10% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ILANKA RZEPIN | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST IŁOWA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 17% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| RÓŻA RÓŻANKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 14% | 19% | 19% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – |
| PROMIEŃ ŻARY | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 5% | – | – |
| POGOŃ SKWIERZYNA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 13% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 11% | – |
| DOZAMET NOWA SÓL | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 14% | 6% |
| SPROTAVIA SZPROTAWA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 13% | 20% | 22% | 21% | 12% |
| STAL SULĘCIN | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 18% | 26% | 31% |
| ŁUCZNIK POLNED STRZELCE KRAJ. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 14% | 24% | 45% |