Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: BYTOMSKI SPORT II POLONIA BYTOM zostaje liderem po jesieni w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 33,0 pkt (od 27 do 38 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze TS TARNOWICZANKA (13%), KS MOSiR SPARTA ZABRZE (12%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BYTOMSKI SPORT II POLONIA BYTOM | 33,0 ± 3,1 | 27–38 | 59% | 84% | 0% |
| 2 | TS TARNOWICZANKA | 30,5 ± 2,8 | 25–35 | 13% | 53% | 0% |
| 3 | KS MOSiR SPARTA ZABRZE | 29,4 ± 3,0 | 23–35 | 12% | 46% | 0% |
| 4 | ŁTS ŁABĘDY | 27,7 ± 3,1 | 22–33 | 3% | 24% | 0% |
| 5 | MKS CONCORDIA KNURÓW | 27,5 ± 3,2 | 22–34 | 5% | 23% | 0% |
| 6 | KS ORZEŁ BIAŁY PIEKARY ŚLĄSKIE | 27,4 ± 3,2 | 21–33 | 4% | 21% | 0% |
| 7 | KS BURZA BOROWA WIEŚ | 27,6 ± 3,0 | 22–33 | 2% | 18% | 0% |
| 8 | LKS VICTORIA PILCHOWICE | 25,8 ± 2,8 | 20–31 | 1% | 10% | 0% |
| 9 | KS RUCH RADZIONKÓW II | 26,3 ± 3,8 | 19–34 | 2% | 15% | 0% |
| 10 | KS SILESIA MIECHOWICE | 24,3 ± 2,8 | 19–29 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 11 | KS GÓRNIK BOBROWNIKI ŚLĄSKIE | 24,4 ± 3,0 | 18–30 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 12 | UKS UNIA STRZYBNICA | 21,1 ± 3,1 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | LKS OLIMPIA BORUSZOWICE | 19,9 ± 2,7 | 15–26 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | KS CARBO GLIWICE | 12,9 ± 2,8 | 9–19 | 0% | 0% | 45% |
| 15 | KS SOŚNICA GLIWICE | 11,5 ± 3,3 | 6–18 | 0% | 0% | 60% |
| 16 | LKS TEMPO PANIÓWKI | 8,4 ± 2,7 | 4–14 | 0% | 0% | 95% |
| 17 | GKS WALKA ZABRZE | 3,8 ± 2,4 | 1–10 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 17 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYTOMSKI SPORT II POLONIA BYTOM | 59% | 17% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| TS TARNOWICZANKA | 13% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS MOSiR SPARTA ZABRZE | 12% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ŁTS ŁABĘDY | – | 10% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS CONCORDIA KNURÓW | – | 8% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS ORZEŁ BIAŁY PIEKARY ŚLĄSKIE | – | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS BURZA BOROWA WIEŚ | – | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LKS VICTORIA PILCHOWICE | – | – | 6% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS RUCH RADZIONKÓW II | – | 6% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS SILESIA MIECHOWICE | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| KS GÓRNIK BOBROWNIKI ŚLĄSKIE | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| UKS UNIA STRZYBNICA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 15% | 27% | 25% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS OLIMPIA BORUSZOWICE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 26% | 46% | 6% | – | – | – |
| KS CARBO GLIWICE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 49% | 38% | 7% | – |
| KS SOŚNICA GLIWICE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 36% | 37% | 21% | – |
| LKS TEMPO PANIÓWKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 22% | 56% | 16% |
| GKS WALKA ZABRZE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16% | 82% |