Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: GKS ARKA Pawłów zostaje mistrzem w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 81,4 pkt (od 68 do 93 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze LKS ORLĘTA Kielce (39%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów (96%), KS HETMAN Włoszczowa (92%), MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna (58%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GKS ARKA Pawłów | 81,4 ± 6,6 | 68–93 | 59% | 99% | 0% |
| 2 | LKS ORLĘTA Kielce | 78,7 ± 6,9 | 64–91 | 39% | 97% | 0% |
| 3 | MLKS SPARTA Kazimierza Wielka | 62,0 ± 7,5 | 47–76 | 1% | 33% | 0% |
| 4 | MKS NEPTUN Końskie | 60,0 ± 7,3 | 45–74 | 1% | 24% | 0% |
| 5 | KS VICTORIA 2015 Skalbmierz | 58,5 ± 7,6 | 43–73 | 0% | 19% | 0% |
| 6 | GKS Nowiny | 57,7 ± 7,4 | 43–72 | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| 7 | OKS Opatów | 52,9 ± 7,4 | 38–67 | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 8 | KORONA SA III Kielce | 49,8 ± 7,8 | 34–65 | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| 9 | GKS Rudki | 48,9 ± 7,5 | 35–64 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 10 | MGKS SPARTAKUS Daleszyce | 48,7 ± 7,6 | 34–63 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 11 | KKP KORONA Kielce | 46,8 ± 7,2 | 32–61 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 | LKS KLIMONTOWIANKA Klimontów | 43,1 ± 7,8 | 28–58 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 13 | MZKS ALIT Ożarów | 43,0 ± 7,7 | 29–58 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 14 | MKS WIERNA Małogoszcz | 36,0 ± 7,0 | 23–51 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 15 | INDUSTRIA WICHER Miedziana Góra | 31,0 ± 6,6 | 20–45 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| 16 | MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna | 27,1 ± 7,0 | 15–42 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| 17 | KS HETMAN Włoszczowa | 18,7 ± 6,3 | 8–32 | 0% | 0% | 92% |
| 18 | MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów | 17,0 ± 5,7 | 7–30 | 0% | 0% | 96% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKS ARKA Pawłów | 59% | 35% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LKS ORLĘTA Kielce | 39% | 51% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS SPARTA Kazimierza Wielka | – | – | 28% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS NEPTUN Końskie | – | – | 20% | 20% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS VICTORIA 2015 Skalbmierz | – | – | 16% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Nowiny | – | – | 11% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKS Opatów | – | – | 6% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KORONA SA III Kielce | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Rudki | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| MGKS SPARTAKUS Daleszyce | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KKP KORONA Kielce | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 5% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS KLIMONTOWIANKA Klimontów | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – |
| MZKS ALIT Ożarów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – |
| MKS WIERNA Małogoszcz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 17% | 28% | 18% | 10% | – | – |
| INDUSTRIA WICHER Miedziana Góra | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 17% | 31% | 25% | 8% | – |
| MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 22% | 37% | 16% | 6% |
| KS HETMAN Włoszczowa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 14% | 38% | 41% |
| MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 35% | 52% |