Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: TS 1946 NIDA Pińczów zostaje liderem po jesieni w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 33,8 pkt (od 28 do 40 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze MKS PARTYZANT Radoszyce (23%), ŁYSICA Bodzentyn (17%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TS 1946 NIDA Pińczów | 33,8 ± 2,9 | 28–40 | 53% | 89% | 0% |
| 2 | MKS PARTYZANT Radoszyce | 31,9 ± 2,7 | 26–37 | 23% | 80% | 0% |
| 3 | ŁYSICA Bodzentyn | 30,9 ± 2,5 | 25–34 | 17% | 78% | 0% |
| 4 | GKS GÓRAL Górno | 28,6 ± 3,0 | 23–35 | 6% | 32% | 0% |
| 5 | MSS KLONÓWKA Masłów | 26,5 ± 3,1 | 20–32 | 1% | 12% | 0% |
| 6 | LECHIA Strawczyn | 25,0 ± 2,9 | 19–31 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 7 | MKS UNIA Sędziszów | 24,3 ± 2,9 | 18–29 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | GKS 4 ECO ASTRA Piekoszów | 22,3 ± 2,9 | 17–28 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 9 | LZS Samborzec | 19,0 ± 3,0 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | MKS STAR II Starachowice | 18,3 ± 3,2 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 11 | MKS OLIMPIA-POGOŃ Staszów | 18,8 ± 2,7 | 14–24 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 12 | SKS WISŁA Sandomierz | 17,2 ± 2,8 | 12–24 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 13 | KAMIENNA Brody | 16,4 ± 2,9 | 10–22 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 14 | KS PARTYZANT Wodzisław | 9,8 ± 2,3 | 7–15 | 0% | 0% | 94% |
| 15 | ZENIT Chmielnik | 8,5 ± 2,7 | 5–15 | 0% | 0% | 95% |
| 16 | SRKiS VICTORIA Mniów | 4,5 ± 1,8 | 3–9 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TS 1946 NIDA Pińczów | 53% | 23% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS PARTYZANT Radoszyce | 23% | 30% | 27% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ŁYSICA Bodzentyn | 17% | 32% | 28% | 14% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS GÓRAL Górno | 6% | 10% | 16% | 29% | 20% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MSS KLONÓWKA Masłów | – | – | 9% | 18% | 25% | 22% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LECHIA Strawczyn | – | – | – | 10% | 17% | 24% | 23% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS UNIA Sędziszów | – | – | – | 9% | 18% | 22% | 20% | 14% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS 4 ECO ASTRA Piekoszów | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 20% | 24% | 19% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Samborzec | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 13% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 10% | – | – | – |
| MKS STAR II Starachowice | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 11% | – | – | – |
| MKS OLIMPIA-POGOŃ Staszów | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 10% | – | – | – |
| SKS WISŁA Sandomierz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 15% | 20% | 22% | 24% | – | – | – |
| KAMIENNA Brody | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 35% | 6% | – | – |
| KS PARTYZANT Wodzisław | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 63% | 29% | – |
| ZENIT Chmielnik | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 25% | 62% | 8% |
| SRKiS VICTORIA Mniów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 91% |