Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: GÓRNIK KONIN zostaje liderem po jesieni w 8 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 39,6 pkt (od 34 do 46 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce (16%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GÓRNIK KONIN | 39,6 ± 3,0 | 34–46 | 76% | 98% | 0% |
| 2 | POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 34,7 ± 3,0 | 29–40 | 16% | 80% | 0% |
| 3 | Polonia Golina | 33,4 ± 2,7 | 28–38 | 6% | 67% | 0% |
| 4 | MIESZKO Gniezno | 31,5 ± 3,1 | 25–37 | 2% | 41% | 0% |
| 5 | Polonia CHODZIEŻ | 27,8 ± 3,0 | 22–34 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 6 | PIAST Kobylnica | 27,6 ± 3,1 | 22–34 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 7 | Obra 1912 Kościan | 27,6 ± 3,2 | 22–34 | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 8 | MKS KANIA Gostyń | 24,8 ± 3,0 | 19–31 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 9 | Kłos BUDZYŃ | 24,6 ± 3,1 | 18–31 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | 20,8 ± 3,2 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 11 | ASTRA Krotoszyn | 20,1 ± 3,1 | 15–26 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 12 | LKS Gołuchów | 19,7 ± 3,0 | 15–26 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 13 | MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | 17,3 ± 3,0 | 12–24 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 14 | HURAGAN Pobiedziska | 16,7 ± 2,8 | 12–22 | 0% | 0% | 28% |
| 15 | Nielba Wągrowiec | 15,2 ± 3,0 | 10–21 | 0% | 0% | 48% |
| 16 | AVIA KAMIONKI | 14,5 ± 3,0 | 9–21 | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| 17 | OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | 13,6 ± 3,0 | 8–20 | 0% | 0% | 66% |
| 18 | WARTA Śrem | 14,0 ± 2,4 | 11–20 | 0% | 0% | 75% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GÓRNIK KONIN | 76% | 16% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 16% | 34% | 30% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia Golina | 6% | 31% | 30% | 20% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIESZKO Gniezno | – | 16% | 23% | 30% | 15% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia CHODZIEŻ | – | – | – | 10% | 21% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST Kobylnica | – | – | – | 11% | 22% | 19% | 18% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Obra 1912 Kościan | – | – | – | 9% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS KANIA Gostyń | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 14% | 20% | 19% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kłos BUDZYŃ | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 16% | 19% | 19% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 20% | 18% | 12% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| ASTRA Krotoszyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Gołuchów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 17% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 9% | – | – | – |
| MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 7% | – |
| HURAGAN Pobiedziska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 9% | – |
| Nielba Wągrowiec | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 16% |
| AVIA KAMIONKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 18% |
| OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 30% |
| WARTA Śrem | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 19% | 27% | 28% |