Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: GÓRNIK KONIN zostaje mistrzem w 4 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 70,8 pkt (od 56 do 85 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Polonia Golina (25%), POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce (16%), MIESZKO Gniezno (15%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: WARTA Śrem (65%), OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. (38%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GÓRNIK KONIN | 70,8 ± 7,5 | 56–85 | 39% | 80% | 0% |
| 2 | Polonia Golina | 68,0 ± 7,3 | 53–82 | 25% | 72% | 0% |
| 3 | POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 65,4 ± 7,8 | 50–80 | 16% | 57% | 0% |
| 4 | MIESZKO Gniezno | 65,0 ± 7,8 | 49–80 | 15% | 55% | 0% |
| 5 | Polonia CHODZIEŻ | 54,9 ± 8,1 | 40–71 | 2% | 12% | 0% |
| 6 | PIAST Kobylnica | 53,3 ± 7,9 | 38–69 | 1% | 8% | 0% |
| 7 | Obra 1912 Kościan | 52,2 ± 7,9 | 37–68 | 1% | 7% | 0% |
| 8 | MKS KANIA Gostyń | 51,3 ± 7,7 | 37–66 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 9 | Kłos BUDZYŃ | 48,0 ± 8,2 | 32–63 | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 | LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | 44,1 ± 8,2 | 29–60 | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| 11 | ASTRA Krotoszyn | 42,6 ± 8,0 | 27–58 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 12 | MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | 39,0 ± 8,0 | 24–55 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 13 | LKS Gołuchów | 37,4 ± 7,5 | 24–53 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 14 | HURAGAN Pobiedziska | 35,4 ± 7,8 | 21–51 | 0% | 0% | 19% |
| 15 | AVIA KAMIONKI | 35,0 ± 7,8 | 20–50 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 16 | Nielba Wągrowiec | 33,0 ± 7,7 | 19–48 | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| 17 | OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | 31,1 ± 7,4 | 17–47 | 0% | 0% | 38% |
| 18 | WARTA Śrem | 26,5 ± 6,8 | 15–41 | 0% | 0% | 65% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GÓRNIK KONIN | 39% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia Golina | 25% | 27% | 20% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 16% | 19% | 22% | 18% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIESZKO Gniezno | 15% | 19% | 20% | 19% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia CHODZIEŻ | – | – | 7% | 11% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST Kobylnica | – | – | – | 10% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Obra 1912 Kościan | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS KANIA Gostyń | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kłos BUDZYŃ | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – |
| ASTRA Krotoszyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – |
| MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 6% | – |
| LKS Gołuchów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 8% | – |
| HURAGAN Pobiedziska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 8% |
| AVIA KAMIONKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 9% |
| Nielba Wągrowiec | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 14% |
| OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 18% |
| WARTA Śrem | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 13% | 22% | 43% |