Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. zostaje liderem po jesieni w 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 38,1 pkt (od 33 do 41 w 95% przebiegów).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 38,1 ± 2,3 | 33–41 | 92% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 33,0 ± 2,6 | 28–37 | 8% | 93% | 0% |
| 3 | PKS Racot | 27,9 ± 2,5 | 23–31 | 0% | 44% | 0% |
| 4 | MTS PAWŁOWICE | 27,7 ± 2,8 | 22–34 | 0% | 30% | 0% |
| 5 | POGOŃ Śmigiel | 26,4 ± 2,4 | 22–31 | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| 6 | JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | 25,6 ± 2,7 | 21–32 | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 7 | LUKS Stare Bojanowo | 26,0 ± 2,8 | 21–32 | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| 8 | RUCH Bojanowo | 23,6 ± 2,6 | 19–29 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 9 | PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | 18,9 ± 2,7 | 14–24 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 10 | BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | 17,8 ± 2,6 | 13–23 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| 11 | LZS Cielcza | 17,0 ± 2,8 | 12–22 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 12 | HELIOS Bucz | 15,6 ± 2,5 | 12–21 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 13 | GKS Jaraczewo | 14,8 ± 2,7 | 10–20 | 0% | 0% | 28% |
| 14 | WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | 14,4 ± 2,7 | 10–20 | 0% | 0% | 40% |
| 15 | BRENEWIA Wijewo | 10,3 ± 2,3 | 7–16 | 0% | 0% | 92% |
| 16 | ZAWISZA Dolsk | 3,5 ± 2,1 | 1–8 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 92% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 8% | 72% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PKS Racot | – | 6% | 38% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MTS PAWŁOWICE | – | 9% | 21% | 20% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Śmigiel | – | – | 10% | 23% | 23% | 18% | 14% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | – | – | 7% | 13% | 17% | 22% | 22% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LUKS Stare Bojanowo | – | – | 10% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 15% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RUCH Bojanowo | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 19% | 33% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 25% | 22% | 18% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – |
| BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 8% | – | – |
| LZS Cielcza | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 8% | – | – |
| HELIOS Bucz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 24% | 19% | – | – |
| GKS Jaraczewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 14% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 9% | – |
| WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 21% | 34% | 6% | – |
| BRENEWIA Wijewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 11% | 77% | – |
| ZAWISZA Dolsk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96% |