Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. zostaje mistrzem w 8 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 72,2 pkt (od 59 do 82 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna (17%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: ZAWISZA Dolsk (99%), BRENEWIA Wijewo (83%), WISŁA Borek Wlkp. (33%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 72,2 ± 5,9 | 59–82 | 76% | 98% | 0% |
| 2 | RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 64,1 ± 6,8 | 50–77 | 17% | 82% | 0% |
| 3 | PKS Racot | 58,1 ± 6,8 | 44–70 | 4% | 52% | 0% |
| 4 | POGOŃ Śmigiel | 52,3 ± 6,9 | 38–66 | 1% | 20% | 0% |
| 5 | MTS PAWŁOWICE | 52,3 ± 7,1 | 38–66 | 1% | 21% | 0% |
| 6 | JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | 50,7 ± 7,1 | 37–64 | 1% | 14% | 0% |
| 7 | LUKS Stare Bojanowo | 47,7 ± 7,3 | 34–62 | 0% | 7% | 1% |
| 8 | RUCH Bojanowo | 45,5 ± 7,3 | 31–60 | 0% | 4% | 1% |
| 9 | PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | 38,9 ± 7,3 | 25–53 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 10 | LZS Cielcza | 36,7 ± 6,9 | 24–50 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 11 | BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | 34,6 ± 6,9 | 22–48 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| 12 | GKS Jaraczewo | 32,2 ± 6,9 | 20–46 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 13 | HELIOS Bucz | 30,9 ± 6,4 | 20–44 | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| 14 | WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | 30,6 ± 6,6 | 19–45 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 15 | BRENEWIA Wijewo | 21,6 ± 6,1 | 11–35 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
| 16 | ZAWISZA Dolsk | 12,4 ± 5,6 | 3–25 | 0% | 0% | 99% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 76% | 17% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 17% | 44% | 21% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PKS Racot | – | 20% | 28% | 19% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Śmigiel | – | 6% | 13% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MTS PAWŁOWICE | – | 6% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | – | – | 10% | 15% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LUKS Stare Bojanowo | – | – | 5% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RUCH Bojanowo | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 12% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 11% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – |
| LZS Cielcza | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 7% | – | – |
| BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 11% | – | – |
| GKS Jaraczewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 9% | – |
| HELIOS Bucz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 20% | 21% | 8% | – |
| WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 22% | 10% | – |
| BRENEWIA Wijewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 17% | 51% | 15% |
| ZAWISZA Dolsk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14% | 82% |