Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: LKS KRZYŻANOWICE zostaje liderem po jesieni w 7 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 39,3 pkt (od 34 do 42 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze BARYCZ MILICZ (11%), BÓR OBORNIKI ŚLĄSKIE (13%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LKS KRZYŻANOWICE | 39,3 ± 2,3 | 34–42 | 75% | 97% | 0% |
| 2 | BARYCZ MILICZ | 35,6 ± 3,2 | 29–42 | 11% | 65% | 0% |
| 3 | BÓR OBORNIKI ŚLĄSKIE | 34,9 ± 2,8 | 29–40 | 13% | 64% | 0% |
| 4 | 1 KS ŚLĘZA II WROCŁAW | 33,7 ± 2,6 | 28–37 | 2% | 56% | 0% |
| 5 | MKP WRATISLAVIA | 31,4 ± 2,9 | 25–37 | 0% | 18% | 0% |
| 6 | VAMOS WROCŁAW | 24,7 ± 3,0 | 19–31 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | DOLPASZ SKOKOWA | 21,0 ± 2,6 | 17–26 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | SPARTA WSZEMIRÓW | 18,6 ± 2,7 | 14–24 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | GKS POLONIA II TRZEBNICA | 18,6 ± 3,1 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | PIAST III ŻMIGRÓD | 18,0 ± 2,7 | 13–24 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 11 | ORZEŁ PRUSICE | 17,9 ± 3,0 | 12–24 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 12 | WIWA GOSZCZ | 16,7 ± 2,9 | 11–22 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 13 | Pogoń CIESZKÓW | 15,3 ± 2,5 | 12–21 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 14 | LOTNIK TWARDOGÓRA | 9,8 ± 2,0 | 8–14 | 0% | 0% | 94% |
| 15 | PLON GĄDKOWICE | 9,3 ± 2,2 | 7–14 | 0% | 0% | 94% |
| 16 | SPARTA WROCŁAW | 0,2 ± 0,7 | 0–3 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKS KRZYŻANOWICE | 75% | 17% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BARYCZ MILICZ | 11% | 33% | 21% | 23% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BÓR OBORNIKI ŚLĄSKIE | 13% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 1 KS ŚLĘZA II WROCŁAW | – | 20% | 33% | 27% | 16% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKP WRATISLAVIA | – | – | 14% | 21% | 55% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| VAMOS WROCŁAW | – | – | – | – | 6% | 66% | 14% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DOLPASZ SKOKOWA | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 33% | 21% | 16% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| SPARTA WSZEMIRÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 5% | – | – | – |
| GKS POLONIA II TRZEBNICA | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 12% | 10% | – | – | – |
| PIAST III ŻMIGRÓD | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 15% | 17% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – |
| ORZEŁ PRUSICE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 11% | – | – | – |
| WIWA GOSZCZ | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 22% | 14% | – | – | – |
| Pogoń CIESZKÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 12% | 19% | 44% | 5% | – | – |
| LOTNIK TWARDOGÓRA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 53% | 40% | – |
| PLON GĄDKOWICE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 35% | 59% | – |
| SPARTA WROCŁAW | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 100% |