Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: JAWORZANKA 1946 JAWOR zostaje liderem po jesieni w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 36,0 pkt (od 30 do 40 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze SPARTA GRĘBOCICE (31%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAWORZANKA 1946 JAWOR | 36,0 ± 2,8 | 30–40 | 64% | 95% | 0% |
| 2 | SPARTA GRĘBOCICE | 33,8 ± 2,9 | 27–38 | 31% | 88% | 0% |
| 3 | SPARTA RUDNA | 30,5 ± 2,8 | 25–36 | 4% | 50% | 0% |
| 4 | ISKRA KOCHLICE | 30,4 ± 2,7 | 25–34 | 1% | 44% | 0% |
| 5 | GÓRNIK II POLKOWICE | 28,6 ± 2,3 | 23–32 | 0% | 22% | 0% |
| 6 | CHOJNOWIANKA CHOJNÓW | 23,0 ± 3,1 | 17–28 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | SOKÓŁ JERZMANOWA | 21,6 ± 2,9 | 16–28 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 8 | GWARDIA BIAŁOŁĘKA | 21,6 ± 3,1 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | WILKOWIANKA WILKÓW | 18,8 ± 3,1 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 10 | UNIPLAN ENERGY ZRYW KŁĘBANOWICE | 17,1 ± 3,0 | 12–23 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 11 | UNIA SZKLARY GÓRNE | 17,5 ± 2,8 | 12–24 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 12 | LZS KOMORNIKI | 15,8 ± 2,8 | 11–21 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| 13 | STAL CHOCIANÓW | 12,7 ± 2,8 | 8–18 | 0% | 0% | 45% |
| 14 | KS MĘCINKA | 12,0 ± 2,8 | 8–18 | 0% | 0% | 62% |
| 15 | KONFEKS LEGNICA | 11,4 ± 2,9 | 7–17 | 0% | 0% | 67% |
| 16 | POGOŃ GÓRA | 6,5 ± 2,2 | 4–11 | 0% | 0% | 99% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAWORZANKA 1946 JAWOR | 64% | 24% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SPARTA GRĘBOCICE | 31% | 40% | 17% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SPARTA RUDNA | – | 16% | 30% | 27% | 17% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ISKRA KOCHLICE | – | 14% | 29% | 28% | 23% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GÓRNIK II POLKOWICE | – | 5% | 17% | 30% | 39% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHOJNOWIANKA CHOJNÓW | – | – | – | – | 7% | 37% | 22% | 16% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SOKÓŁ JERZMANOWA | – | – | – | – | – | 22% | 23% | 25% | 14% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GWARDIA BIAŁOŁĘKA | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | 28% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| WILKOWIANKA WILKÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 14% | 20% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – |
| UNIPLAN ENERGY ZRYW KŁĘBANOWICE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 13% | 9% | – | – | – |
| UNIA SZKLARY GÓRNE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 16% | 21% | 19% | 14% | 8% | – | – | – |
| LZS KOMORNIKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 19% | 23% | 18% | 11% | – | – |
| STAL CHOCIANÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 15% | 25% | 28% | 15% | – |
| KS MĘCINKA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 17% | 24% | 33% | – |
| KONFEKS LEGNICA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 16% | 23% | 38% | 6% |
| POGOŃ GÓRA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 86% |