Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: MLKS Józefovia zostaje mistrzem w ponad 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 79,4 pkt (od 68 do 88 w 95% przebiegów). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: LKS Perła Złotokłos (89%), MKP Pogoń II Siedlce (76%), LKS Chlebnia (70%), KPS Food KS Proch Pionki (51%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MLKS Józefovia | 79,4 ± 5,0 | 68–88 | 98% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | GKS Wilga Garwolin | 59,1 ± 6,8 | 45–72 | 1% | 72% | 0% |
| 3 | RKS Ursus II W-wa | 55,9 ± 6,9 | 42–69 | 0% | 52% | 0% |
| 4 | AP ŻYRARDOWIANKA | 53,7 ± 7,1 | 40–68 | 0% | 38% | 0% |
| 5 | RADOMIAK II RADOM | 46,2 ± 7,6 | 32–61 | 0% | 10% | 2% |
| 6 | MKS Pilica Białobrzegi | 46,2 ± 7,1 | 33–60 | 0% | 9% | 2% |
| 7 | KS Powiślanka Lipsko | 45,6 ± 7,2 | 32–60 | 0% | 9% | 2% |
| 8 | STF CHAMPION | 44,6 ± 7,0 | 31–58 | 0% | 5% | 3% |
| 9 | GKS TYGRYS HUTA MIŃSKA | 39,2 ± 7,1 | 25–53 | 0% | 1% | 13% |
| 10 | GKS Drogowiec Jedlińsk | 37,9 ± 7,0 | 25–52 | 0% | 1% | 16% |
| 11 | GKS Jodła Jedlnia-Let. | 35,0 ± 7,4 | 22–50 | 0% | 1% | 30% |
| 12 | LKS WEKTRA ZBUCZYN | 31,5 ± 7,0 | 18–46 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| 13 | KPS Food KS Proch Pionki | 31,0 ± 7,0 | 19–46 | 0% | 0% | 51% |
| 14 | LKS Chlebnia | 27,5 ± 6,5 | 16–41 | 0% | 0% | 70% |
| 15 | MKP Pogoń II Siedlce | 26,2 ± 6,6 | 15–40 | 0% | 0% | 76% |
| 16 | LKS Perła Złotokłos | 22,8 ± 6,2 | 12–36 | 0% | 0% | 89% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLKS Józefovia | 98% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Wilga Garwolin | – | 46% | 25% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKS Ursus II W-wa | – | 26% | 26% | 18% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| AP ŻYRARDOWIANKA | – | 16% | 22% | 21% | 16% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RADOMIAK II RADOM | – | – | 7% | 11% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Pilica Białobrzegi | – | – | 7% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Powiślanka Lipsko | – | – | 7% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| STF CHAMPION | – | – | – | 9% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS TYGRYS HUTA MIŃSKA | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – |
| GKS Drogowiec Jedlińsk | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – |
| GKS Jodła Jedlnia-Let. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – |
| LKS WEKTRA ZBUCZYN | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 6% |
| KPS Food KS Proch Pionki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 6% |
| LKS Chlebnia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 17% |
| MKP Pogoń II Siedlce | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 22% | 24% |
| LKS Perła Złotokłos | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 13% | 25% | 43% |